Zatulin: Russia is interested that the elections wouldn't be easy for Lukashenka
The first Deputy Head of the Committee on CIS Affairs of the State Duma, a member of the General Council of the "United Russia" Kanstantsin Zatulin told the European Radio for Belarus how Russia was going to influence the Belarusian elections, why Kremlin had not decided on "its" candidate yet and why Medvedev was unlikely to make peace with Lukashenka at the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
European Radio for Belarus: the Head of the Central Asia department of your Institute Andrej Grozin stated an opinion in his interview to the portal "Republic", that Kremlin "would love to substitute Lukashenka for another politician, but there's no alternative - there are only either "zoned-out nationalists" or "marginals". However, other Russian analysts say that there will be no Kremlin's protege at the presidential elections in Belarus. Probably you, as a deputy of the State Duma and the member of the directive board of the "United Russia", know better - will Kremlin be presented at these elections?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: Grozin, naturally, can have his own view on any subject, but he is an expert in Central-Asian issues. Formally, we can speak about Kremlin's participation in the Belarusian elections. It is naive to believe that Kremlin would not try to influence the elections in Belarus. TV-series shown on Russian TV-channels, word battles at the highest level, are a clear sign that relations between Russia and Alyaksandr Lukashenka are at the end of tether. He simply gave a pain in the neck to many people in Russia by his behaviour, his comments, his deeds, which contradict the Kremlin's idea about the allied relations. So now everything looks as if Russia, having no certain alternative candidate, which cannot be possibly found in Belarus at the moment, is not interested in that another Presidential elections in Belarus would be as smooth and easy as the pavement of Nevski Avenue.
European Radio for Belarus: How can Kremlin possibly influence the elections without its own candidate?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: Right now the Russian leaders are demonstrating how they are going to influence the situation. The scandal around Lukashenka's promises to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia goes on. The movie "Godbatka" is still shown on TV at the same time. I am convinced that if the parties do not find understanding, such situation will be continued, progressing as the time will go closer to the elections. It is hard to predict the result of all this, as well as to contemplate that there's no alternative to Lukashenka. In the year 1994, when Lukashenka became a President, and the elections were more or less democratic, nobody thought he would survive at this position for so long. However, there's nothing permanent under the Sun. I will never believe that a political leader who could be an alternative to Lukashenka would not appear among the Belarusian citizens, maybe not at these elections, but at the next ones. We speak about return of democratic freedoms and norms to Belarus. Today it's difficult to believe that the elections in Belarus will be free and fair.
European Radio for Belarus: If the elections result in, which is really difficult to doubt, the victory of Lukashenka - will Russia and Kremlin admit legitimacy of such elections?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: It depends on how the elections will be conducted. There have been reproaches that the elections in Belarus are non-democratic before. In fact, it would be unfair to think that Lukashenka has no supporters. 30% of the electorate are his voters. Approximately the same quantity of people would vote for another candidate if there has been one, if they believed it was possible to elect someone else. Now we are speaking about the destiny of these very votes, whether these people see any alternative or not.
European Radio for Belarus: what is your attitude to the opinion that Kremlin has recently changed its policy and now stimulates change of presidents in the former USSR countries? Supporters of this opinion give an example of Kyrgyzstan and the Ukraine. So why Moscow don't try something like that in Belarus as well?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: These are completely different countries, Belarus has nothing in common with Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan is a country which from time to time comes very close to breakdown. Moreover, the level of life is also completely different. I don't wish Belarus to come across with such situation as in Kyrgyzstan. As for the new policy of Russian authorities in their approach to relations with leaders of different countries, I wouldn't call it new. There are leaders with whom we have been building good relations for years. Let us recall Nazarbaev for instance. Russia never built up any machinations against Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, there are enough grounds to show we do not accept one political figure or another. It is obvious that Viktor Jushchenko demolished the relations between Russia and the Ukraine, so it would be strange to think that Russia will support him at the position of a President due to some monarchic views. As for Bakiev, he was so easily deposed because during his reign he managed to demonstrate all his promises were just empty words, whether these promises were given inside the country or internationally. Russia has allies and competitors. Sometimes the interests collide. But how Russia can influence the destiny of some politcian or another? I think much depends on Russia, even if its influence is not equal in different CIS countries. Russia acts taking these possibilities into consideration, in order to promote its interests and to support those politicans who share these interests and are ready to take them into account.
European Radio for Belarus: do you think Lukashenka will try to solve the current conflict between our countries with Medvedev during the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and what would be the results?.
Kanstantsin Zatulin: There can be such attempts, but the situation went so far that even attempts of this kind can be considered as weakness by another side. Taking into consideration the character and temper of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, it is difficult to think that he is that much interested in this issue so he couldn't make it another way. I don't know if there will be such attempts, but I think they won't change anything. The situation reminds a famous movie "Either I take her to the Mayor' office for matrimony, or she takes me to the public prosecution". The relations between the leaders of Russia and Belarus became strained to such extent.
We are speaking about unprecedented things, like publishing of shorthand reports of closed sessions of CSTO in order to prove that Lukashenka really did say something he now denies saying. It is hard to believe that a simple conversation at the CSTO summit will solve the problems.
European Radio for Belarus: Do you think that even if Lukashenka says to Medvedev, "Let's stop all this and be friends again!", nothing will come out of it?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: What do you mean "be friends again?" Alyaksandr Lukashenka can recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Will it be a step towards normalization of relations? Definitely, although it is not the first-ranked issue for Russia, but if you consider yourself an ally, you should act in accordance with the formal obligations of an ally. In 2008 Lukashenka approved Russia's policy in that region. And then - a 2-year pause ending in confession which made the whole world wonder. What kind of the Union State it is when such an important issue arise polar opinions? Recognition would soothe the passions a bit. However, I don't see any changes in the position of Belarus with regard to this issue. Moreover, the President Lukashenka doesn't look good when he demands certain help from Russia if he recognises independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Such behaviour contradicts the image of kind and fair father, which Lukashenka has been creating for years. He accepted Bakieu without hesitation, but when it came to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, he started worrying about the material side. He demanded that Russia should compensate him the negative consequences of recognition. Russia has taken the major part of responsinbility for everything which happens in that region! But Lukashenka is not ready for this recognition.
European Radio for Belarus: even if he is ready, do you think it won't be enough to solve the conflict entirely?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: Abkhazia and South Ossetia have turned into a symbolic issue recently. However, there is also the order of the Union State. Has it been fulfilled? No, and it is unclear whether it would ever be fulfilled. In addition to the above, there is a series of problems and questions.
European Radio for Belarus: the Head of the Central Asia department of your Institute Andrej Grozin stated an opinion in his interview to the portal "Republic", that Kremlin "would love to substitute Lukashenka for another politician, but there's no alternative - there are only either "zoned-out nationalists" or "marginals". However, other Russian analysts say that there will be no Kremlin's protege at the presidential elections in Belarus. Probably you, as a deputy of the State Duma and the member of the directive board of the "United Russia", know better - will Kremlin be presented at these elections?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: Grozin, naturally, can have his own view on any subject, but he is an expert in Central-Asian issues. Formally, we can speak about Kremlin's participation in the Belarusian elections. It is naive to believe that Kremlin would not try to influence the elections in Belarus. TV-series shown on Russian TV-channels, word battles at the highest level, are a clear sign that relations between Russia and Alyaksandr Lukashenka are at the end of tether. He simply gave a pain in the neck to many people in Russia by his behaviour, his comments, his deeds, which contradict the Kremlin's idea about the allied relations. So now everything looks as if Russia, having no certain alternative candidate, which cannot be possibly found in Belarus at the moment, is not interested in that another Presidential elections in Belarus would be as smooth and easy as the pavement of Nevski Avenue.
European Radio for Belarus: How can Kremlin possibly influence the elections without its own candidate?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: Right now the Russian leaders are demonstrating how they are going to influence the situation. The scandal around Lukashenka's promises to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia goes on. The movie "Godbatka" is still shown on TV at the same time. I am convinced that if the parties do not find understanding, such situation will be continued, progressing as the time will go closer to the elections. It is hard to predict the result of all this, as well as to contemplate that there's no alternative to Lukashenka. In the year 1994, when Lukashenka became a President, and the elections were more or less democratic, nobody thought he would survive at this position for so long. However, there's nothing permanent under the Sun. I will never believe that a political leader who could be an alternative to Lukashenka would not appear among the Belarusian citizens, maybe not at these elections, but at the next ones. We speak about return of democratic freedoms and norms to Belarus. Today it's difficult to believe that the elections in Belarus will be free and fair.
European Radio for Belarus: If the elections result in, which is really difficult to doubt, the victory of Lukashenka - will Russia and Kremlin admit legitimacy of such elections?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: It depends on how the elections will be conducted. There have been reproaches that the elections in Belarus are non-democratic before. In fact, it would be unfair to think that Lukashenka has no supporters. 30% of the electorate are his voters. Approximately the same quantity of people would vote for another candidate if there has been one, if they believed it was possible to elect someone else. Now we are speaking about the destiny of these very votes, whether these people see any alternative or not.
European Radio for Belarus: what is your attitude to the opinion that Kremlin has recently changed its policy and now stimulates change of presidents in the former USSR countries? Supporters of this opinion give an example of Kyrgyzstan and the Ukraine. So why Moscow don't try something like that in Belarus as well?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: These are completely different countries, Belarus has nothing in common with Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan is a country which from time to time comes very close to breakdown. Moreover, the level of life is also completely different. I don't wish Belarus to come across with such situation as in Kyrgyzstan. As for the new policy of Russian authorities in their approach to relations with leaders of different countries, I wouldn't call it new. There are leaders with whom we have been building good relations for years. Let us recall Nazarbaev for instance. Russia never built up any machinations against Kazakhstan. Nevertheless, there are enough grounds to show we do not accept one political figure or another. It is obvious that Viktor Jushchenko demolished the relations between Russia and the Ukraine, so it would be strange to think that Russia will support him at the position of a President due to some monarchic views. As for Bakiev, he was so easily deposed because during his reign he managed to demonstrate all his promises were just empty words, whether these promises were given inside the country or internationally. Russia has allies and competitors. Sometimes the interests collide. But how Russia can influence the destiny of some politcian or another? I think much depends on Russia, even if its influence is not equal in different CIS countries. Russia acts taking these possibilities into consideration, in order to promote its interests and to support those politicans who share these interests and are ready to take them into account.
European Radio for Belarus: do you think Lukashenka will try to solve the current conflict between our countries with Medvedev during the summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and what would be the results?.
Kanstantsin Zatulin: There can be such attempts, but the situation went so far that even attempts of this kind can be considered as weakness by another side. Taking into consideration the character and temper of Alyaksandr Lukashenka, it is difficult to think that he is that much interested in this issue so he couldn't make it another way. I don't know if there will be such attempts, but I think they won't change anything. The situation reminds a famous movie "Either I take her to the Mayor' office for matrimony, or she takes me to the public prosecution". The relations between the leaders of Russia and Belarus became strained to such extent.
We are speaking about unprecedented things, like publishing of shorthand reports of closed sessions of CSTO in order to prove that Lukashenka really did say something he now denies saying. It is hard to believe that a simple conversation at the CSTO summit will solve the problems.
European Radio for Belarus: Do you think that even if Lukashenka says to Medvedev, "Let's stop all this and be friends again!", nothing will come out of it?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: What do you mean "be friends again?" Alyaksandr Lukashenka can recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Will it be a step towards normalization of relations? Definitely, although it is not the first-ranked issue for Russia, but if you consider yourself an ally, you should act in accordance with the formal obligations of an ally. In 2008 Lukashenka approved Russia's policy in that region. And then - a 2-year pause ending in confession which made the whole world wonder. What kind of the Union State it is when such an important issue arise polar opinions? Recognition would soothe the passions a bit. However, I don't see any changes in the position of Belarus with regard to this issue. Moreover, the President Lukashenka doesn't look good when he demands certain help from Russia if he recognises independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Such behaviour contradicts the image of kind and fair father, which Lukashenka has been creating for years. He accepted Bakieu without hesitation, but when it came to Abkhazia and South Ossetia, he started worrying about the material side. He demanded that Russia should compensate him the negative consequences of recognition. Russia has taken the major part of responsinbility for everything which happens in that region! But Lukashenka is not ready for this recognition.
European Radio for Belarus: even if he is ready, do you think it won't be enough to solve the conflict entirely?
Kanstantsin Zatulin: Abkhazia and South Ossetia have turned into a symbolic issue recently. However, there is also the order of the Union State. Has it been fulfilled? No, and it is unclear whether it would ever be fulfilled. In addition to the above, there is a series of problems and questions.
