Will 10 opposition MPs be enough for Europe to recognize elections?
Commentator Roman Yakovlevski reckons that the European Union has not come to a common conclusion on how democratic the pre-election process is. That’s why they will wait for September 28.
Roman Yakovlevski: “They will see what is going to happen on September 28. I think this proves that there is no unity in Brussels regarding the processes that are taking place now in Belarus”.
At the same time, Yakovlevski reckons that it is not the number of opposition MPs but the electoral process what is important for the European Union. In his view, the elections cannot be regarded as democratic already today. However, the relations between Belarus and EU are pragmatic. Therefore, it is hard to predict the result.
Yakovlevski: “Government’s other promises can influence on the decision to recognize elections. I am talking about a latent and secret process of privatization in Belarus. If European businesses get a certain access to the Belarusian market as Lukashenka is promising, the elections will apparently be recognized”.
Waclaw Radziwinowicz, the political commentator at the Polish newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza, reckons that by boycotting the elections, the opposition in Belarus puts Europe into a very difficult position.
“It (boycott) will only put Europe in a very difficult situation. We just wanted to make a test, and we were not given this opportunity not because of Lukashenka’s policy but because of unwise decision of the opposition”.
Radziwinowicz also thinks that the number of opposition MPs is not important. What matters is the electoral campaign: the access of opposition candidates to the media; the treatment of candidates by law-enforcement agencies; the formation of election commissions and the vote count. Apparently, one cannot speak about fully democratic elections. But Europe wants to see at least a relative democratization compared to the previous elections.
Radziwinowicz: “Even if we wished to have democratic elections, that would not be possible, because there are no parties and no free media”.
However, when there are less than 10 opposition MPs, it will simply be ridiculous. At least 10-15 people could create a critical mass, says Radziwinowicz.
While political commentators are not confident that EU will recognize the parliamentary elections, Popular Front leader Lyavon Barscheuski has announced that Europe is preparing at least a partial recognition of the elections.
“Today, I can announce officially that some very influential circles in the West are preparing at least a partial recognition of the House of Representatives as a legitimate body and will widen contacts with the parliament after the so called elections on September 28. Unfortunately, this strategy has found supporters in Belarus”, Barscheuski said.
Meanwhile, the United States are not even going to wait for the results of the elections and will lift some sanctions before September 28, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Merkel said in an interview with the European Radio for Belarus.
"We are going to make additional steps towards the abolition of sanctions even before the parliamentary elections. Afterwards, if there is progress, we will see what could be done additionally", said David Merkel.
Conditions for election recognition:
| Access of opposition candidates to the media |
+ |
| Sufficient number of independent media | - |
| Positive treatment of candidates by law-enforcement agencies | + |
| Sufficient number of the opposition in election commissions | - |
| Fair vote count | ? |
| Opposition in the parliament | ? |
| Access of European businesses to the Belarusian market | + |
Photo: bymedia.net
