Hasn’t Belarus paid for Russian gas?
ERB found out that the money paid by “Gazprom” for the shares of “Beltransgaz” has been included in the gold and exchange currency reserves. What are the authorities gathering money for? The Belarusian gold and exchange currency reserves suddenly totaled 2.9 billions on July 1. The sum was 1.5 times smaller a year ago and totaled 2.24 billions a month ago.
It means that the sum increased by 600 millions only in June! Where has the country got the money from especially taking into account that it had to pay the debt for gas? Anatol Drazdou, the head of the administration of the National Bank, explains it.
Anatol Drazdou: the main source of money for the gold and exchange currency reserves was buying foreign currency at the interbank monetary exchange and the money received after selling the shares of “Beltransgaz”.
The decision to transfer the money received for “Beltransgaz” to the gold and exchange currency reserves instead of paying the debt for gas or investing it in the economy raised a lot of questions.
Anatol Drazdou refused to comment on the step referring to the fact that such decisions were in the government’s competence. An economist Yaraslau Ramanchuk said the following:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk: Out of all the variants in the framework of the existing economic policy this one is not bad. But it would be worse if the reserves were used to support the exchange-value.
A political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsau drew attention to the other side of the issue:
Andrei Suzdaltsau: It seems to me that the Belarusian government is trying to raise money. But it is hard to say why they are doing it. Maybe it is done to live through the hard times when Belarus will have to pay the world price for oil in the coming three years, maybe to build an atomic power plant or even to create reserves for the ruling elite.
By the way, Alyaksandr Lukashenka demanded that the head of administration of the National Bank Pyotr Prakapovich made the gold and exchange currency reserves reach 3 billions till the end of the year instead of 2010 on June 8.
When ERB asked how real it was Anatol Drazdou answered:
Anatol Drazdou: If the head of the National Bank promised the leader of the country to make it 3 billions we will do it.
Yaraslau Ramanchuk is not that optimistic about it:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk: If you simply use all money to make the gold and exchange currency reserves reach this amount than it is possible. The thing is whether it helps the Belarusian economy and why it is necessary. It seems to me that the authorities got in the trap of a stable exchange-value and do not pay attention to the growing tension between the sale and the balance of payment, so it’s the real sector, the banking system and the ability of Belarus to produce goods that could be sold in other countries that are suffering. It resembles similar periods in Russia in 1998 ad in Thailand in 1997 when the economy did not endure the tension of a fixed exchange-value and it lead to a default or to an acute crisis.
While the President demands to increase the gold and exchange currency reserves, Belarus that has been buying Russian gas for 55 USD per cubic meter instead of 100 USD has accumulated a debt.
ERB asked Andrei Suzdaltsau whether the debt was paid:
Andrei Suzdaltsau: Belarus has not paid more than 500 millions of the debt to “Gazprom” that accumulated in the period between January 1 and June 30.
— Was there any agreement about the term the debt had to be paid out?
Andrei Suzdaltsau: There is no such an agreement at the moment. There was an adjournment mentioned by Belarus, - to pay the debt till July 23.
The date mentioned by the political scientist is not that far – only about two weeks is left. How will Belarus pay? Yaraslau Ramanchuk:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk: The Ministry of Finance has collected so much money that the gap between expenses and the income reached 8% of the GDP and it is a huge sum of money. I think this money will be used to pay the debt to “Gazprom”.
Andrei Suzdaltsau has another opinion about the ability of Belarus to pay the debt:
Andrei Suzdaltsau: We really doubt it. We watched the way the money was allocated in Moscow. In fact, Belarusian consumers have been paying even more than 100 USD per cubic meter since January 1. So Belarus seems to have the necessary money. But it is hard to exchange the rubles. They seem to be waiting for the credit they are asking from Moscow now.
Speaking about the credit – Belarus is asking 2 billion dollars from Russia. Yaraslau Ramanchuk explains whether it is possible:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk: You can ask even 5 but the situation will not change as Russia understands that the Belarusian economy is very much dependent on the way Belarusian goods are sold in Russia and on the way what energy grant we will receive from Russia. So Russia is using its advantage and is taking its time.
It means that the sum increased by 600 millions only in June! Where has the country got the money from especially taking into account that it had to pay the debt for gas? Anatol Drazdou, the head of the administration of the National Bank, explains it.
Anatol Drazdou: the main source of money for the gold and exchange currency reserves was buying foreign currency at the interbank monetary exchange and the money received after selling the shares of “Beltransgaz”.
The decision to transfer the money received for “Beltransgaz” to the gold and exchange currency reserves instead of paying the debt for gas or investing it in the economy raised a lot of questions.
Anatol Drazdou refused to comment on the step referring to the fact that such decisions were in the government’s competence. An economist Yaraslau Ramanchuk said the following:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk: Out of all the variants in the framework of the existing economic policy this one is not bad. But it would be worse if the reserves were used to support the exchange-value.
A political scientist Andrei Suzdaltsau drew attention to the other side of the issue:
Andrei Suzdaltsau: It seems to me that the Belarusian government is trying to raise money. But it is hard to say why they are doing it. Maybe it is done to live through the hard times when Belarus will have to pay the world price for oil in the coming three years, maybe to build an atomic power plant or even to create reserves for the ruling elite.
By the way, Alyaksandr Lukashenka demanded that the head of administration of the National Bank Pyotr Prakapovich made the gold and exchange currency reserves reach 3 billions till the end of the year instead of 2010 on June 8.
When ERB asked how real it was Anatol Drazdou answered:
Anatol Drazdou: If the head of the National Bank promised the leader of the country to make it 3 billions we will do it.
Yaraslau Ramanchuk is not that optimistic about it:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk: If you simply use all money to make the gold and exchange currency reserves reach this amount than it is possible. The thing is whether it helps the Belarusian economy and why it is necessary. It seems to me that the authorities got in the trap of a stable exchange-value and do not pay attention to the growing tension between the sale and the balance of payment, so it’s the real sector, the banking system and the ability of Belarus to produce goods that could be sold in other countries that are suffering. It resembles similar periods in Russia in 1998 ad in Thailand in 1997 when the economy did not endure the tension of a fixed exchange-value and it lead to a default or to an acute crisis.
While the President demands to increase the gold and exchange currency reserves, Belarus that has been buying Russian gas for 55 USD per cubic meter instead of 100 USD has accumulated a debt.
ERB asked Andrei Suzdaltsau whether the debt was paid:
Andrei Suzdaltsau: Belarus has not paid more than 500 millions of the debt to “Gazprom” that accumulated in the period between January 1 and June 30.
— Was there any agreement about the term the debt had to be paid out?
Andrei Suzdaltsau: There is no such an agreement at the moment. There was an adjournment mentioned by Belarus, - to pay the debt till July 23.
The date mentioned by the political scientist is not that far – only about two weeks is left. How will Belarus pay? Yaraslau Ramanchuk:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk: The Ministry of Finance has collected so much money that the gap between expenses and the income reached 8% of the GDP and it is a huge sum of money. I think this money will be used to pay the debt to “Gazprom”.
Andrei Suzdaltsau has another opinion about the ability of Belarus to pay the debt:
Andrei Suzdaltsau: We really doubt it. We watched the way the money was allocated in Moscow. In fact, Belarusian consumers have been paying even more than 100 USD per cubic meter since January 1. So Belarus seems to have the necessary money. But it is hard to exchange the rubles. They seem to be waiting for the credit they are asking from Moscow now.
Speaking about the credit – Belarus is asking 2 billion dollars from Russia. Yaraslau Ramanchuk explains whether it is possible:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk: You can ask even 5 but the situation will not change as Russia understands that the Belarusian economy is very much dependent on the way Belarusian goods are sold in Russia and on the way what energy grant we will receive from Russia. So Russia is using its advantage and is taking its time.
